A Futurist's Guide to the 2023 IPCC Climate Change Report

Introduction

Two weeks ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report which sums up the previous six years' worth of research, climate change data, and carbon emissions.  It also contains the most recent predictions and recommendations.  I wanted to write my take on it, but my usual format of a couple of paragraphs on Facebook wasn't up to the challenge.  So, after reading, absorbing, and ruminating the report and its implication, I dusted off ye old blog to record my thoughts.

What is the IPCC?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a United Nations body created to act as a central clearing house for all global research on climate change.  It essentially allows the entire scientific community working in the area of climate change to see all of the data, research, simulations, and so on, and gives that group a single voice to share its results to the world.  To learn more, check out https://www.ipcc.ch/about/.

What does the latest report say?

This report is dire.  It's hard to find positives within the report, to be honest, and processing this after reading the report has been one of the reasons I've taken two weeks to write this.  We are now well past the point of warning about climate change.  It's happening, and it's getting worse.  In fact, it's getting worse faster than was predicted.

In the spirit of not giving up hope, the scientists of the IPCC use terms like "It's not too late." but the rest of that sentence really tells the tale: "It's not too late to avoid the worst case scenario."  According to the report, it is extremely likely that we'll barrel right past the point of "Things get really bad" - 1.5 degrees of warming and it's looking more and more likely that we'll hit "You do not want to be here" temperatures of 2.0 degrees of warming.

To give this some context, the report calls for a 43% reduction in carbon emissions globally by 2030 - that's seven years - to avoid 1.5 degrees.  In BC, if we outlawed all internal combustion engines in the entire province we would still miss that goal.

Here's the report itself if you want to read it and/or check my interpretation: 

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

What does this mean for the future - our future?

Ok, time to put the depressing UN Report down, put on my Futurist hat, and get to work.  Let's break this down, and figure out what it means and what we can do.  Because there are things we can be and need to be doing - things that will make a difference in not only our own lives, but in those lives around us as well.

We Aren't Going to Stop this from Happening

Maybe we could have, and maybe we still can, but it's become pretty obvious that, despite everything, we are not going to prevent Climate Change from rapidly worsening past points that the UN considers "existential."  

Let's all take a deep breath and accept that.  

Now this doesn't mean "Eat Drink and Be Merry" - we still need to work towards carbon neutrality, because we will want to reverse the Climate Disaster at some point, but things are going to get dicey for a couple of generations at least.  With that accepted, need to shift our thinking away from "preventing" climate change, and to "surviving" - and some day "reversing" - climate change.

What is going to happen?

It is hard - to the point of impossible - to predict exactly what's going to happen as the global temperature rises.  We've seen many effects of increasing just 0.9 degrees - droughts, floods, fires, superstorms, shifts of growing seasons, mass extinctions, etc.  We will definitely get more of all of that.  However there are also more subtle changes - for example the jet stream has stabilized over North America, meaning weather systems last for weeks instead of days.  As the global weather system gets more and more energy, things get more chaotic.  Like shaking a snow globe harder - you can't predict the behavior of the snow.

I think of it as "driving into a hurricane:"  -the deeper we go, the worse things will get, but exactly what we'll see and feel - there is no way to know.  So all I can say for sure is that things will get harder as we continue to warm.  And we need to be prepared for that - prepared and adaptable.

We Need to Survive as a Civilization, not just as People

As "romantic" as it is to imagine post-apocalyptic living in a mountain cabin away from everything, most people need the supports of civilization in order to survive.  Clean water, electricity, medicines, and other civil supports need to continue in order for the majority of citizens to stay acceptably healthy.  So when we are talking about surviving climate change, what we mean is keeping the lights on, the hospitals open, and the prescriptions delivered. If we fail in this, we will need to start over as a species. We are far too stubborn to be anything other than the last surviving animal on this planet, but as a goal, I think being reduced to the stone age isn't ambitious enough.

How to help Civilization Survive

Congratulations if you've made it this far - it's heavy stuff and hard to read.  Now we come to the "what can you do" part of the article.  And as it turns out, there is a lot we can do to help us get through this.  

It all boils down to this:  Get Small. Reduce your load on the systems.

The civil supports that make up civilization are already under stress - firefighters, health systems, power grids, water systems, and more are all carrying an increasing load.  Our duty to those systems is to reduce the amount that we are contributing to that stress.  And, largely, we have already begun doing it.

How? By increasing our resilience and independence.  If the systems need to handle a bigger load, we can help be reducing our demands on those systems.  Different people in different situations will be able to do this in different ways and in different amounts, but we can all do something.  Here are some ideas:

Health:

• Take first aid training:  can you treat a sprained ankle?  check a wound for infection?  Tell the difference between a fever from a flu and something more serious?  If not, a course in first aid will help you to better deal with minor issues at home and to know when something is serious enough to go to the clinic.  By reducing the number of clinic visits made "just in case", we can reduce the load on the system as a whole, and increase the chance of those resources being there when someone really needs them.
• Stock a good first aid kit:  If you have gauze and burn cream at home - and you know how to use them - you won't need to see a doctor for a minor burn. Minor injuries can be effectively and safely treated without needing to go to a clinic if you have the materials to do so.
• Dress appropriately:  Weather extremes are becoming more common.  Dressing to protect yourself from extreme heat, cold, and wet go a long way to keeping you healthy.
• If you need it, use it:  Just because you aren't going to a clinic to treat an uninfected cut doesn't mean you aren't drawing anything from the health system.  Get your meds.  Get treated when it's necessary.  Go for surgeries necessary for quality of life.  Mindfulness of waste does not mean foregoing important medical treatments.

Water:

• Get a rain barrel:  If you use water outside for any reason (plants, car washing, lawn, window cleaning, etc.) having a source of water that isn't drinking water allows the water systems to continue to function longer when under stress.
• Conserve wasted water:  We've all heard that you shouldn't waste water by letting it run, but sometimes you have to (in the sink or shower while getting the water hot, for example).  If you keep a bucket nearby, you can save that water, and dump it into the rain barrel.  That way, even if there is no rain, you can keep putting water into the barrel.
• Grey water:  If you're ambitious, conserving grey water expands the above options.  This is perhaps too much for most people and for most living spaces, but it's an option

Power:

• Efficiency:  Power efficiency has come a long way in the past few decades.  As much as possible, use efficient systems to reduce your load on the power grid.
• Independence:  I don't think it is necessary to go "off grid," but more and more things can function without needing to be plugged in to power at all. Solar lights, solar chargers, etc. not only save you money, but they also mean that the grid isn't quite so stressed at peak times.

Food:

• Growing: Growing all of your own food isn't usually practical, but you can often make a difference if you look carefully at what you like to eat and make the most of what you can grow - spices go a long way, for example.
• Buy local:  If you are in a position to buy local, do so.  It reduces strain on all sorts of supply systems, not to mention keeping money in the community.

Community:

• Build community networks: Take some time to introduce yourself to those living close to you:  Even if it's just smiling and nodding, it makes a difference.  There may be times when mutual support will be important, and that is much easier if you've already established relationships.
• Be generous:  Do you have extra?  Offer it around.  Again, even if no one takes you up on it, it establishes a precedent that will make things easier if/when it is needed.  It also changes things if you need something later:  barter is easier than asking for charity.

Summary

We are in for some tough times.  Where I live will probably have a milder set of problems vs other places, at least at first, but everywhere will feel it.  Take reasonable precautions and do what you can, and we'll get through it.  Things will be lost - places, practices, luxuries - but we will get through.  It isn't the end of the world.  Just the end of an era.  This new era will force us to live smaller, smarter, and closer to each other.  There will be benefits as well as losses.  Let's just take a deep breath - and get to work.